NFL Week 18 – Compiled by Vincent Verhei
Typically, playing recommendation is goal—like within the NFL picks you get with FO+, for example. However typically playing recommendation is subjective. We’re making an attempt one thing new this week, with employees picks from the FO writers. We’ll do that each week if it will get an excellent response: picks towards the unfold, straight-up upsets, and participant prop bets the FO employees likes in Week 18.
Strains are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider.
Favourite Choose In opposition to the Unfold
Cale Clinton: Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans and Jaguars took two totally different approaches to their Week 17 video games, with Tennessee taking the “relaxation over rust” path. The Titans even have the benefit of a protracted week on high of that, gaining some extra relaxation for a banged-up roster and giving new quarterback Joshua Dobbs extra time to get comfy in a brand new offense. Contemplating Dobbs posted the group’s finest offensive passing DVOA since Week 12 on eight days’ discover, I like Tennessee to at the very least hold it shut.
Bryan Knowles: Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Denver Broncos. This sport is not absolutely meaningless to the Chargers, although it could be earlier than it truly kicks off within the afternoon. That possible means we’ll see their starters at the very least for a bit—they will be warmed up and able to go, in any case, so you could as properly have them play 1 / 4. And that ought to be greater than sufficient to cowl a area objective unfold over the Broncos, even with out Nathaniel Hackett placing his thumb on the scales.
Jackson Roberts: New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers. The Saints are sneakily higher than their report would point out. Our estimated wins metric has New Orleans at 7.9, 14th within the NFL, whereas Carolina is at simply 6.3. New Orleans has additionally gained all three of their video games for the reason that Monday night time Tampa Bay debacle and has the ninth-ranked protection per DVOA. I see one group combating onerous to complete the season and the opposite exhibiting as much as a street sport deflated after blowing their shot at a division title final week.
Aaron Schatz: Detroit Lions (+4.5) at Inexperienced Bay Packers. The Lions offense on the street worries me a little bit, however weighted DVOA does have the Lions forward of the Packers at this level so 4.5 looks like a much bigger cushion than the Packers deserve. I can positively see an in depth sport right here, irrespective of which group comes away with the win (or the playoff spot).
Tom Strachan: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have thrown within the towel, and while Jarrett Stidham carried out above expectations towards the 49ers, it may not pay to anticipate that two weeks in a row. The Chiefs want a win right here, and Patrick Mahomes can surpass Drew Brees’ single-season report with 430 extra passing yards. That may be fairly a giant achievement, and I am unsure the Raiders can sustain.
Vincent Verhei: Houston Texans (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts. A number of weird-looking strains this week as everybody’s making an attempt to guess simply how onerous some groups will probably be making an attempt to win. The Texans are a high quality instance: they’ll clinch the highest total draft choose with a loss, however a win would most likely give that choose to the Bears as a substitute. However since quite a lot of these Texans gamers and coaches most likely will not be right here subsequent 12 months anyway, I am guessing they provide it their all, and so they have been the higher group as of late, with a weighted DVOA of -25.5% in comparison with the Colts’ mark of -33.3%, worst within the NFL.
Upset of the Week
Restricted to groups which are underdogs by three factors or extra.
Cale Clinton: Los Angeles Rams (+6) at Seattle Seahawks. I really feel like Los Angeles’ shell of a roster nonetheless has a stunning quantity to play for. Led by Baker Mayfield and Cam Akers, an excellent handful of Rams gamers are getting one final shot to place tape out earlier than the tip of the season. Seattle’s struggle for a playoff spot received more durable after shedding main tackler Jordyn Brooks to an ACL tear. I like Los Angeles to play spoiler on Sunday.
Bryan Knowles: Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings.
There as soon as was a group that chanted “Skol!”
That they had desires of the Tremendous Bowl.
However with each ridiculous sport they gained
their DVOA fell low.
Quickly could the Peterman come
to throw 13 interceptions.
And but when the counting is finished,
he’ll take his win and go.
Jackson Roberts: Los Angeles Rams (+6) at Seattle Seahawks. I do not really feel nice about his choose, however the upset board is fairly grisly as a complete this week—ought to I as a substitute put my hopes in Nathan Peterman or the complete Cowboys’ second unit? It looks like yearly, a group with an honest likelihood to clinch the playoffs in Week 18 falls flat on its face towards a non-contender (assume final 12 months’s closing Colts-Jags sport). If I am figuring out a contender for that this season, this seems like an inexpensive possibility.
Tom Strachan: New York Jets (+3) at Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins should win this weekend to have an opportunity at making the playoffs, however the Jets possible will not lay down and permit them to win. The Jets protection has been implausible all season and will give a tricky time to whichever quarterback the Dolphins make the most of.
Vincent Verhei: Los Angeles Rams (+6) at Seattle Seahawks. Since buying Baker Mayfield, the Rams rank nineteenth in whole DVOA, together with eighth in cross offense; in that very same time, the Seahawks rank seventeenth and twentieth. Sure, L.A.’s numbers are skewed by the Christmas bloodbath of the Denver Broncos, however Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have at all times struggled towards the Rams, going 12-14 with losses to Sam Bradford, Austin Davis, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, Matthew Stafford, and John Wolford. No motive Mayfield cannot be part of that record.
Do You Have a Explicit Participant You Wish to Put Up Actually Robust Fantasy Factors or Go Over His Betting Props This Week?
Cale Clinton: Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX. Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty have dominated many of the offensive output from the Jaguars the previous two weeks, one thing that will probably be more durable to maintain up towards the second-best speeding protection within the league by DVOA. Lawrence and the Jaguars posted a 94.7% offensive passing DVOA the final time they performed Tennessee, and I anticipate them to lean equally on their passing assault with the division title on the road.
Jackson Roberts: Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR. As a result of if the Rams are going to beat the Seahawks, anyone might want to put up yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are twenty eighth in DVOA towards tight ends, and regardless of a dud final week, Higbee nonetheless has three scores in his final three weeks with Baker Mayfield below heart.
Aaron Schatz: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN. The Jaguars rank thirty first in DVOA towards tight ends and twenty seventh in yards allowed per sport (adjusted for opponents). The over/below on Okonkwo is simply 23.5 yards, and he ought to be an excellent safety blanket for an inexperienced Joshua Dobbs. Okonkwo has solely 34 yards whole the previous two weeks, however he went over this whole in seven straight video games earlier than that, together with Week 14 towards Jacksonville (45 yards and a landing).
Tom Strachan: Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN. Jefferson is inside distance of setting the single-season report for receiving yards. Jefferson wants 194 yards to interrupt the report and faces a woeful Chicago protection that ranks thirty second towards WR1s. Jefferson would possibly wrestle to get fairly that top, however I might anticipate the Vikings to force-feed him early. Jefferson’s over/below line is about at 94.5 on a number of platforms.
Vincent Verhei: Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX. I’ve been driving “working again dealing with the Houston Texans” for many of the 12 months, however no method I am betting on the Colts’ backs with out Jonathan Taylor. As an alternative I am going to take Trevor Lawrence, who’s in a win-and-in state of affairs towards a Tennessee Titans protection that ranks second towards the run however twenty eighth towards the cross. The Jaguars ought to be passing early, typically, and efficiently on Saturday night time.
