Underdogs Stand Out within the Greatest Bowls of the Postseason

NCAA Bowl Season – Within the comparatively brief School Soccer Playoff period, we’ve seen a variety of traits in how the choice committee picks groups, and among the many most evident is the importance they ascribe to convention championship video games. Groups have made it in due to massive wins in them—corresponding to Ohio State in 2014, which parlayed a 59-0 victory over Wisconsin into the No. 4 seed and their most up-to-date nationwide title. However groups have additionally been not noted for losses, even shut ones—in 2017, Wisconsin once more misplaced the Massive Ten title to the Buckeyes (this time by six factors) and fell from the highest 4.

With that season’s Alabama and this season’s Ohio State each making the CFP with out having to play that thirteenth sport, some have argued that the committee would not respect its professed logic of rewarding division winners. In any case, shedding so late within the season and making it in is a tough process: just one group, 2021 Georgia, has been actually assured of creating it regardless of a convention championship loss, and earlier than this yr just one different group, 2020 Notre Dame, had pulled it off.

Even with some assist from losses by a thinning subject of contenders—Clemson shedding to South Carolina, LSU shedding to Texas A&M, and USC shedding to Utah—TCU knew they might be on the perimeter of the playoff in the event that they misplaced within the Massive 12 Championship Sport. Even in a loss, it might be essential to place up a battle and depart a superb final impression with the committee. So whereas the Horned Frogs’ miraculous game-tying landing drive (on which Max Duggan drove them 80 yards by speeding for 95) did not result in a win in extra time, it was sufficient to all however safe their bid to the bracket.

Duggan is without doubt one of the greatest stars of bowl season, and his likelihood at additional redemption after a gritty late-game efficiency in opposition to Kansas State can be a key storyline to observe within the Fiesta Bowl. However whereas TCU’s Cinderella season has been the perfect of a yr filled with upstarts, the marquee bowls have loads of unfamiliar groups. 5 are within the New Yr’s Six for the primary time in at the least half a decade, and three are making their solely look within the playoff period—tied for essentially the most since 2014. Tennessee and Tulane need to cap their greatest seasons for the reason that flip of the century, whereas Utah is chasing its first-ever Rose Bowl win and Kansas State is hoping for its first top-10 end in twenty years. The final full weekend slate of the season guarantees to be a must-watch spectacle to conclude an exciting season of school soccer.

All instances are listed as Jap.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
Maryland Terrapins vs. NC State Wolfpack (-1)
Friday, December 30, 12 p.m. (ESPN)

Contemplating the power of a few of the quarterbacks they confronted, Maryland’s sturdy statistical efficiency in opposition to the move is sort of a formidable feat. The Terrapins held Tanner Mordecai to six.8 yards per try, J.J. McCarthy to eight.5, Sean Clifford (and others) to five.5, and C.J. Stroud to eight.0. Opponents totaled simply 33 passes for 20 or extra yards in opposition to Maryland, a greater mark than Ohio State and Penn State (each within the New Yr’s Six), they usually had been held to a 7.9% big-play charge that ranked nineteenth total. Whereas the Terrapins’ secondary wasn’t notably flashy—it solely intercepted seven passes all season, and none of its gamers made an all-conference group—it was impressively environment friendly at limiting opposing passers.

Accidents have plagued NC State’s quarterback room this season, with starter Devin Leary misplaced for the yr in early October and MJ Morris (7.5 yards per try on 86 passes) unavailable down the stretch. If Morris is not wholesome in time for this bowl, the Wolfpack could be right down to preseason fourth-stringer Ben Finley, who averaged 6.3 yards per try on 75 passes in two video games this season. In any case, the starter for this sport should work with out Devin Carter, whose 16.2 yards per catch had been simply essentially the most of any common receiver for NC State.

On the upside for the Wolfpack, their protection is well-equipped to cope with Maryland’s personal passing assault, which can be severely handicapped with out two of its prime 4 targets. Rakim Jarrett (471 yards) and Jacob Copeland (376 yards) have each declared for the NFL draft, and Dontay Demus (2,008 profession yards) can be unavailable as properly. Second-team all-conference quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (7.9 yards per try, 17 touchdowns, six interceptions) needs to be absolutely recovered after a minor damage late within the season, however his depleted group of pass-catchers should reckon with a robust NC State secondary. The Wolfpack confronted the fifth-highest passing charge of any protection, holding opponents to a 37.0% success charge (twenty eighth) and seven.6% big-play charge (thirteenth) as a key issue of their eight-win season. If they will shut down a deep Maryland receiving corps, they need to have the ability to put the Terrapins away with out a lot problem.

Look ahead to:

• Can Maryland’s speeding corps create yardage up entrance in opposition to a stalwart NC State defensive position (2.09 line yards per carry allowed, third in FBS)?
• Will the Wolfpack protection (fourth in success charge on commonplace downs, seventieth on passing downs) have the ability to get off the sector?
• Can NC State linebacker Drake Thomas (90 tackles, 15 tackles for loss) get into the Maryland backfield in his ultimate faculty sport?

FEI Outright Decide: Maryland by 5.7.

Tony the Tiger Solar Bowl
El Paso, Texas
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. UCLA Bruins (-7.5)
Friday, December 30, 2 p.m. (CBS)

UCLA’s protection held them again from difficult for the Pac-12 title or a New Yr’s Six bowl, however their offensive expertise is simple, and most of it is going to be on show within the Solar Bowl. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, one of many nation’s most dependable passers, will shut out a storied profession with the Bruins, and Zach Charbonnet (1,359 yards, 7.0 yards per carry, 14 touchdowns) was lately confirmed to start out the sport as properly. With Jake Bobo (789 yards, 14.6 yards per catch) enjoying, UCLA could have the prospect to ship off their prime offensive trio with a win, although they’re going to need to beat a robust Pitt protection to take action.

The Panthers excelled at stopping groups up entrance, holding their opponents to a 35.4% success charge (thirteenth) however permitting a ten.9% big-play charge (forty eighth). Their efficiency on commonplace downs was distinctive, as they ranked eighth with a 40.6% success charge allowed, however they struggled to capitalize; that success charge stood at 27.3% on passing downs, solely thirty fourth total. Pitt’s protection was at its greatest when it performed aggressively, profiting from Sirvocea Dennis (12 tackles for loss, seven sacks) and all-American Calijah Kancey (14.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), however neither can be accessible for this sport.

Choose-outs and accidents have decimated Pitt throughout the board: quarterback Kedon Slovis, star working again Israel Abanikanda, edge rusher Deslin Alexandre, and security Brandon Hill are amongst different key starters who will not play in opposition to UCLA. The Panthers do, nonetheless, have some spectacular defensive depth: corners Erick Hallett II and M.J. Devonshire have been remarkably environment friendly at taking down opposing gamers (7.1% mixed missed sort out charge), and Habakkuk Baldonado (24 pressures) could possibly be a pressure within the move rush if wholesome. Pitt’s absences will make it tough to maintain up with the Bruins’ offense on this bowl, however they should not be counted out totally.

Look ahead to:

• Can the Panthers’ defensive position (ninth in line yards per carry allowed) preserve Charbonnet underneath wraps and keep away from giving up massive performs?
• Will Thompson-Robinson (three interceptions in opposition to USC in Week 12, 4 in the remainder of the season) keep away from turnovers in opposition to a robust Pitt secondary (sixth in defensive again havoc charge)?
• With Abanikanda unavailable, can Pitt rusher Rodney Hammond Jr. (366 yards, 4.4 yards per carry) make the most of UCLA’s poor run protection (109th in success charge)?

FEI Outright Decide: UCLA by 4.2.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
Notre Dame Preventing Irish (-3.5) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Friday, December 30, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Few groups had been outlined extra by their quarterback this season than South Carolina. Spencer Rattler, previously of Oklahoma earlier than he was benched in favor of Caleb Williams final yr, virtually singlehandedly turned the Gamecocks from an also-ran into a real menace to beat any group. The place final yr’s squad was steamrolled by its hardest opponents (40-13 by Georgia, 45-20 by Tennessee, 44-14 by Texas A&M, 30-0 by Clemson), this yr they confirmed way more battle and completed the season by gorgeous No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson. The ground did stay low—South Carolina misplaced 23-10 to Missouri and 38-6 to Florida, each of which ended up going 6-7—however having a reputable playmaker underneath heart raised the ceiling fairly a bit.

On the opposite finish of the spectrum, Notre Dame’s quarterback scenario proved limiting for essentially the most half. By most metrics, Drew Pyne had a greater season total than Rattler, however he was usually not the important thing piece of their greatest wins. When the Preventing Irish, just like the Gamecocks, shocked ranked opponents in back-to-back weeks in opposition to Syracuse and Clemson, he averaged simply 5.6 yards per move with two touchdowns and an interception. Pyne will not play on this sport, having entered the switch portal, however Tyler Buchner’s return from damage would not change issues a lot; he was unexceptional in a loss to Ohio State, then threw two interceptions in a surprising loss to Marshall.

It is not all dangerous for Notre Dame, which did punch above its weight at instances—of their case, thanks largely to a rock-solid run sport that dominated the Orange and the Tigers, amongst others. The Irish ranked twentieth in speeding success charge, twelfth in line yards per carry, and fourth in stuff charge, speeding for over 200 yards in six video games and successful all six. A deep speeding corps consisting of Audric Estime (825 yards), Logan Diggs (732 yards), and Chris Tyree (423 yards) was key to their success, however the line has been maybe crucial issue. Amongst 786 linemen with at the least 200 snaps blocking for rushers, PFF’s grades ranked Notre Dame sort out Joe Alt second, tight finish Michael Mayer twenty sixth, guards Josh Lugg and Jarrett Patterson 133rd and 134th, sort out Blake Fisher 146th, and guard Zeke Correll 309th. In opposition to a South Carolina defensive position that struggled to cease opponents up entrance (52.4% speeding success charge allowed, 127th in FBS), Notre Dame ought to get sufficient push on the bottom to match Rattler via the air.

Look ahead to:

• Will the Irish’s success in limiting brief passes (seventh in passing success charge allowed) account for his or her relative weak point to massive performs (thirty fourth in passing explosiveness allowed)?
• Can Buchner (5.9% profession interception charge) shield the ball in opposition to a stable Gamecocks secondary (0.8 interceptions per sport)?
• Will Notre Dame’s standard subject place benefit (+8.1 yards in comparison with opponents) be weaker in opposition to South Carolina’s particular groups (+3.9 yards)?

FEI Outright Decide: Notre Dame by 2.6.

Barstool Sports activities Arizona Bowl
Tucson, Arizona
Ohio Bobcats (-2.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Friday, December 30, 4:30 p.m. (Barstool)

For properly over a decade, nothing outlined Ohio soccer greater than Frank Solich. The previous Nebraska coach arrived in 2005 and swiftly made the Bobcats one of many Group of 5’s most constant groups. Underneath his watch, they made 4 convention championship video games and 11 bowls, and he had simply two shedding seasons in 16 years on the helm. So when Solich retired late within the 2021 offseason, it was extra than simply necessity that made longtime assistant Tim Albin a pure rent. Between Lincoln and Athens, Albin had labored underneath Solich for yearly within the twenty first century except for one, and his promotion was essentially the most logical transfer. Whereas his debut was a ghastly 3-9 season lowlighted by a loss to FCS Duquesne, he led a whole turnaround this yr, with the Bobcats going 9-4 and successful their final seven video games of the common season.

That one season Albin spent on a non-Solich workers, 2004, noticed him calling performs on offense for brand new Division I-AA program North Dakota State. A number of others who coached these Bison went on to additional fame—Casey “Gus” Bradley grew to become an NFL defensive coordinator, and quarterbacks coach Brent Vigen is now 24-4 at Montana State—however main the best way was head coach Craig Bohl, who would go on to win three straight nationwide titles at North Dakota State earlier than taking up at Wyoming.

Unsurprisingly, Albin’s offense and Bohl’s protection are the highest matchup on this bowl, however there’s an attention-grabbing imbalance for each items. Ohio has relied closely on quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9.2 yards per try, 25 touchdowns, 4 interceptions), who has led them to a 48.4% passing success charge (fifteenth) and a 14.4% explosive move charge (14th). A season-ending damage, nonetheless, thrust backup CJ Harris (393 yards on 64 passes) into the beginning position, forcing the Bobcats to place working again Sieh Bangura (940 yards) entrance and heart. With almost a month of relaxation, they need to hammer the run on this sport, particularly in opposition to a Wyoming protection that was greatest in opposition to the move. Linebacker Easton Gibbs, who led the Cowboys with 49 tackles and 22 stops on run performs, might want to tempo the entrance seven in opposition to an Ohio offense that can possible look to win on the bottom.

Look ahead to:

• Can the Cowboys lean on their depleted speeding corps successfully with a floundering passing assault (76 yards per sport, one landing, eight interceptions within the final 4 video games)?
• How will Ohio’s run protection, which groups are likely to keep away from testing (Tenth-lowest rush charge confronted), deal with Wyoming’s run-first offense (14th in rush charge)?
• Can Wyoming’s protection (73rd in passing-downs success charge) get the Bobcats’ offense (twentieth in passing-downs success charge) off the sector?

FEI Outright Decide: Ohio by 7.4.

Capital One Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, Florida
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Clemson Tigers (-6)
Friday, December 30, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Tennessee featured among the best passing offenses in soccer this season, however most of its key items will not be round for the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Hendon Hooker, after all, tore his ACL in a loss to South Carolina, whereas Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt and fellow star receiver Cedric Tillman have each opted out. The Volunteers have punched above their weight with a few of these gamers unavailable—the offense did not miss a beat with Tillman out for a lot of the first half, and it put up 56 factors with Joe Milton underneath heart in opposition to Vanderbilt—however their absences have not been wherever near this.

With their passing assault decimated, Tennessee should lean on their speeding corps in opposition to a gifted, balanced Clemson protection. Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have been a superb one-two punch on the bottom, combining for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns on 280 carries, and freshman Dylan Sampson (397 yards, 6.8 yards per carry) has emerged as an ideal chance-of-pace choice. The Volunteers’ run sport is not notably explosive, however line play (thirteenth in line yards per carry, seventh in stuff charge) has helped them set up offensive success up entrance.

Clemson’s run protection has been largely glorious this yr, permitting simply 101 yards per sport and three.3 yards per carry, however groups with comparable expertise and measurement have given them bother. In a four-game stretch in opposition to Florida State, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Louisville, the Tigers surrendered properly over half of all of the speeding yardage they allowed this season, with these groups averaging 5.3 yards per carry. This unit, too, will lack a few of its greatest gamers for the bowl—edge rusher Myles Murphy (11 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks) and linebacker Trenton Simpson (72 tackles) have each declared and will not play on this sport. That would create a possibility for Tennessee to beat their very own losses and pull off an upset, however they’re going to nonetheless need to beat a deep Clemson line to take action.

Look ahead to:

• Will the deep menace posed by Milton (12 explosive passes on 54 makes an attempt) outweigh his struggles on shorter performs?
• Can the Tigers’ protection (3.06 factors allowed per alternative, eighth) make a stand in opposition to the Volunteers (4.76 factors per alternative, fifth) on essential possessions?
• Will new Clemson starter Cade Klubnik preserve rolling after his sturdy exhibiting in opposition to North Carolina (20-for-24, 279 yards, one landing)?

FEI Outright Decide: Tennessee by 14.9.

Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5)
Saturday, December 31, 12 p.m. (ESPN)

In an period the place even marquee bowls may be diminished by opt-outs (and the place the size of the schedule usually leaves postseason rosters considerably weakened by damage), this sport guarantees to be simply nearly as good as marketed. The one absences for both group would be the few gamers who’ve entered the portal or are nonetheless recovering from accidents, and each main star on either side is ready to take part.

Kansas State could have quarterback Will Howard, dual-threat rusher Deuce Vaughn, and receiver Malik Knowles to cleared the path on offense, whereas edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah and cornerback Julius Brents would be the standouts on protection. The Wildcats had been one of the crucial balanced groups in FBS this season, and making a change at quarterback was the ultimate puzzle piece that made them unstoppable down the stretch. Of their final 5 video games with Howard underneath heart, Kansas State went 5-0, averaging 41 factors per sport with over 30 factors in each sport. Howard himself threw 13 touchdowns and only one interception in that span, averaging 8.3 yards per try and 240 yards per sport.

The Crimson Tide will search for nook Kool-Help McKinstry to restrict Howard’s effectiveness via the air, whereas dominant move rusher Will Anderson Jr. will attempt to create stress in opposition to a stable offensive line. On offense, Alabama has a wealth of choices, however Jahmyr Gibbs (850 speeding yards, 378 receiving yards) is well essentially the most dynamic and has been their go-to playmaker all season. Complemented by Jase McClellan within the speeding corps and by Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton within the receiving corps, Gibbs leads the Tide in carries and catches and has the scale and pace to check the Wildcats’ protection at each degree. If Kansas State cannot discover a strategy to include him at full power, they’re going to want all the things their very own offense can muster to maintain up with the high-scoring Crimson Tide.

Look ahead to:

• Can the Wildcats (twenty second in success charge allowed on passing downs) stop Alabama (seventh in success charge on passing downs) from extending possessions?
• Will the Tide’s improbable move protection (18th in success charge, fifth in explosiveness) make up for his or her susceptibility in opposition to the run?
• How properly can every offensive line stand as much as the heavy stress introduced by Anudike-Uzomah and Anderson?

FEI Outright Decide: Alabama by 6.7.

TransPerfect Music Metropolis Bowl
Nashville, Tennessee
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, December 31, 12 p.m. (ABC)

We might focus on how these offenses will fare with unfamiliar quarterbacks on the helm—Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla are out for Iowa, whereas Will Levis will not play for Kentucky—however in the event you’re watching this sport, it is a protected guess you are not in it for the offense. The projected level whole is hovering round 31 factors, which might break the document set by Iowa-Northwestern in October for the bottom in recorded historical past. A lot can be manufactured from the inept offenses at play for these groups, rendered extra so by opt-outs, transfers, and accidents, however their elite defenses deserve the limelight.

That minuscule 31-point whole is sensible contemplating Iowa has averaged a 17-14 ultimate rating this season, indicative of each their offensive ineptitude and their defensive brilliance. The Hawkeyes gave up 54 factors to Ohio State, however every of their different 11 opponents scored 27 or fewer, 9 scored 13 or fewer, and 4 had been held to single digits. Linebacker Jack Campbell (115 tackles, 5.8 yards allowed per goal) led the best way for this group, with Riley Moss (10 move breakups) and Cooper DeJean (seven move breakups, 4 interceptions) chipping in for a sensational secondary.

Whereas the Wildcats’ protection wasn’t as dominant because the Hawkeyes’, it was nonetheless efficient throughout the board and shut down almost each opponent. Kentucky did not maintain an FBS foe underneath 13 factors, however they solely gave up greater than 24 in a single sport, throttling the gifted offenses of Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Georgia. The Wildcats are led by cornerback Keidron Smith, environment friendly as a tackler (7.8% missed sort out charge) and in protection (6.3 yards per goal, no 25-yard completions allowed). He is emblematic of how sturdy this unit is throughout the board, with none apparent weaknesses in opposition to passes, rushes, brief good points, or massive performs. There is not any telling which of those defenses will maintain enterprise extra successfully—in a sport the place they might legitimately outscore the offenses—however it’s clear they’re going to be the celebrities of a low-scoring bowl.

Look ahead to:

• Will Kentucky passer Kaiya Sheron’s expertise this season (29 passes in 4 video games) give him a bonus over Iowa’s Joey Labas (first profession look)?
• Can the Hawkeyes give their offense good subject place by creating takeaways from a turnover-prone Kentucky offense (eighty fifth in havoc allowed)?
• How will the Wildcats’ restricted speeding depth fare with lead working again Chris Rodriguez Jr. (904 yards in eight video games) opting out?

FEI Outright Decide: Kentucky by 0.0.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (School Soccer Playoff Semifinal)
Glendale, Arizona
Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, December 31, 4 p.m. (ESPN)

Contemplating TCU is a group that was not anticipated to battle for a spot wherever within the postseason, not to mention the playoff, a lot of the preamble to this semifinal understandably focuses on their unbelievable season. At a look, Michigan appears a pure distinction, having entered the highest 5 within the second week of the season and by no means fallen out. The 13-0 Wolverines, whereas not completely dominant in opposition to all comers, delivered authoritative statements in opposition to their two ranked opponents, outscoring Penn State and Ohio State 53-6 within the second half. It is tempting to pressure them into the position of the heavy favourite with the Horned Frogs seeking to proceed the unlikeliest run in CFP historical past.

Whereas there’s some fact to that framing, it should not be ignored that Michigan wasn’t on this place for a lot of the season, not to mention their latest historical past. The Wolverines had been an underdog by greater than a landing in opposition to rival Ohio State, and whereas their upset win wasn’t as gorgeous as final yr’s, it was nonetheless a significant reversal from the place they stood all season. As in 2021, Michigan regarded extra like a pretender to be eradicated as soon as they ran right into a playoff-caliber opponent, not a real title contender.

However in 2021, the Wolverines’ magic ran out after they took down the Buckeyes and gained the Massive Ten, with their season reaching an abrupt finish in a 34-11 loss to Georgia. Michigan lacked regular passing (mixed 6.6 yards per try, one landing, two interceptions) and was subsequently unable to lean on their power, the run sport (91 yards on 27 carries, each season lows). For this yr to be totally different, they should decide up yardage via the air to assist the run sport, which can lack Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 touchdowns) however characteristic a well-rested Donovan Edwards (872 yards).

After all, 2022 TCU’s protection is not as daunting a pressure to face as 2021 Georgia’s was. However at the same time as this unit lags behind the Horned Frogs’ dynamic offense, it has nonetheless made main strides since final season, when it completed among the many backside 15 of FBS in EPA, success charge, and explosiveness allowed. Specifically, the skilled secondary has been a revelation, limiting brief good points properly (36.5% passing success charge allowed, twenty second) and creating turnovers (1.0 interceptions per sport, tied for twenty sixth). And whereas the deep passes TCU has allowed led Michigan to a blowout victory over Ohio State, they have not been the Wolverines’ bread and butter this season. This offense prefers to maintain the ball on the bottom, speeding on 62.6% of performs (eleventh), and it would not push the ball downfield via the air. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy solely threw 43 passes of at the least 20 yards, seventh within the Massive Ten, and just one Michigan participant (Ronnie Bell) ranked within the convention’s prime 25 in yards after catch.

How a lot the Wolverines will want to move is, after all, closely depending on how properly they will stop TCU from getting forward and pressuring them into shifting the ball rapidly. The Horned Frogs’ offense did sputter at instances down the stretch, scoring fewer than 30 factors in three of their final 4 video games after reaching that mark of their first 9 outings, however it’s cheap to ascribe a few of that decline to a tricky schedule and a basic reliance on massive performs. Michigan is supplied to cope with something on protection—they rank among the many prime 20 in EPA, success charge, and explosiveness allowed on each rushes and passes—however shutting down massive performs has been their greatest attribute. The Wolverines have held opponents to a 7.7% big-play charge, third within the nation, they usually could possibly be the primary group to utterly shut down each Max Duggan’s passing assault (13.7% big-play charge, nineteenth) and Kendre Miller’s run sport (16.9% big-play charge, 14th). If Michigan can achieve this and safe an early benefit, they need to be properly on their strategy to taking the following step and difficult for a nationwide title.

Look ahead to:

• Can Edwards (18 runs for double-digit yardage on 117 carries) present sufficient explosiveness to maneuver Michigan’s offense rapidly if it must?
• Can TCU’s stable particular groups (top-15 in offensive and defensive beginning subject place) nullify Michigan’s benefit (first in beginning subject place on offense, sixth on protection)?
• Will McCarthy make the most of the Horned Frogs’ vulnerable move protection (92nd in explosive move charge allowed) to push the ball downfield?

FEI Outright Decide: Michigan by 9.2.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (School Soccer Playoff Semifinal)
Atlanta, Georgia
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)
Saturday, December 31, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Purely on paper, this could be the perfect first-round matchup the playoff has ever produced. Ohio State and Georgia rolled via 24 of their 25 opponents with out a lot problem this season, with metrics inserting each comfortably among the many greatest within the nation each week. The Buckeyes did come up brief on the finish of the season, however they blew out almost each different group on their schedule and delivered some pretty authoritative wins over stable Notre Dame and Penn State groups. In the meantime, the Bulldogs opened with a near-perfect win over Oregon and firmly established themselves as the perfect group within the nation by stifling a dynamic Tennessee offense in Athens.

Ohio State would not discover itself within the position of an underdog usually; Vegas hasn’t favored their opponent for the reason that 2020 Nationwide Championship Sport, and with good motive contemplating the Buckeyes’ 22-3 document in that span. It is not simply Georgia’s dominance that makes this an uphill battle, nonetheless, with a number of different components enjoying in opposition to Ohio State. Two of their three greatest offensive gamers—working again TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba—are out for the season, and the top-seeded Bulldogs had the luxurious of choosing close by Atlanta as the location for this sport. It would not be too loopy to counsel that even the present line is just too small—Georgia did roll previous a reasonably comparable Michigan group within the semifinals final season, in spite of everything.

Nonetheless, even with Ohio State’s absences, they need to have the offensive weapons to match Georgia blow-for-blow. Miyan Williams outshone Henderson at working again this season, totaling 817 yards on 6.5 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns, and Dallan Hayden (510 yards, 5.0 yards per carry) carried out properly as a secondary choice. Within the receiving corps, Emeka Egbuka reached 1,039 yards on the season with a 125-yard efficiency within the loss to Michigan. Julian Fleming and Cade Stover have not taken workloads on the order of Harrison (72 catches) and Egbuka (66 catches), however they’ve been stable as properly, with 861 mixed yards and 13.5 yards per reception.

How will Georgia look to restrict this suite of playmakers? Nicely, as a lot expertise because the Buckeyes have on offense, there may not be a unit in faculty soccer that may examine to the Bulldogs’ defensive depth. Within the secondary, Georgia shut down any menace of massive performs with ruthless effectivity. Javon Bullard (6.5% missed sort out charge) and Malaki Starks (7.9% missed sort out charge) had been very important to stopping opponents corresponding to Tennessee and LSU from taking the highest off the protection. Up entrance, the Bulldogs ranked second with 2.09 line yards per carry allowed, they usually led the nation in speeding explosiveness allowed. Linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (64 tackles, 23 stops) anchored Georgia in run protection, however edge rusher Nolan Smith (10 stops on 69 snaps in run protection) made surprisingly important contributions as properly.

Georgia’s protection has virtually nothing to take advantage of, however the identical is not true of Ohio State, which has one obtrusive weak point: the deep ball. A lot was manufactured from how the Buckeyes acknowledged they hadn’t ready for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to check their secondary, and it confirmed. However this protection additionally struggled with massive passes all season, giving up a ten.4% explosive-pass charge that ranked 79th in FBS, and McCarthy hadn’t usually proven the big-play capability that he demonstrated within the Wolverines’ runaway victory. In Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, the Buckeyes face an analogous opponent, one who made 10- and 20-yard passes properly however hardly ever pushed the ball additional downfield. Within the SEC, he ranked twelfth with 5 40-yard passes, and whereas Georgia opened up the playbook extra because the season progressed, he was nonetheless hardly ever referred to as upon to go deep. Whether or not Bennett will look to make the most of the Buckeyes’ deadly flaw—and whether or not Ohio State will show higher ready for it than they had been in opposition to Michigan—will possible outline the possibilities of an upset in an distinctive playoff duel.

Look ahead to:

• Will Georgia’s lack of aggressiveness on protection (76th in havoc) enable Ohio State to maneuver the ball constantly?
• Can the Buckeyes’ offensive line (seventh in line yards per carry) win an excellent battle with Georgia within the trenches?
• How properly can the Bulldogs (second in passing-downs success charge) keep on the sector in opposition to a tenacious Buckeyes protection (fifth in passing-downs success charge allowed)?

FEI Outright Decide: Georgia by 6.7.

ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa, Florida
Illinois Preventing Illini vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1.5)
Monday, January 2, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)

It is unimaginable to debate this bowl with out addressing the sudden, tragic demise of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach, which has understandably solid a pall over the Bulldogs’ upcoming sport. The sport will nonetheless be performed, which appears in keeping with what Leach would need; it is also a welcome alternative for celebration amid a tough time for this system, and provides the group an opportunity to complete the season ranked for the primary time since 2017.

Mississippi State’s offense, as was attribute of Leach’s excessive Air Raid model, depends closely on brief, profitable performs to maneuver downfield. That makes the Illinois protection, third within the nation in success charge allowed, an intriguing matchup for the Bulldogs. To the extent the Illini had been weak (outdoors of their susceptibility to explosive performs, which are not Mississippi State’s specialty), they struggled extra in opposition to the move. Partly as a result of Illinois led in most of their video games and partly as a result of their secondary was a step behind their entrance seven; opponents focused it closely, passing on the Twenty ninth-highest charge confronted by any protection. Nonetheless, solely 33.9% of these passes had been profitable performs, the sixth-lowest common allowed in FBS.

It is a provided that the Bulldogs will move closely—they achieve this on 68.3% of performs, the very best charge within the nation by a large margin—so the Illini’s secondary will definitely be examined. Whereas this group has been glorious all yr, it’s going to be missing first-team all-conference defensive backs Devon Witherspoon (14 move breakups, three interceptions) and Sydney Brown (seven move breakups, six interceptions). This sport will check their depth, however there are many playmakers in Illinois’ defensive backfield: Jartavius Martin (11 move breakups, three interceptions) is prone to play, as is Kendall Smith (5 move breakups, 4 interceptions). If this protection could make a stand within the absence of their prime stars, they stand a superb likelihood at stifling the Bulldogs’ assault and successful a low-scoring slugfest.

Look ahead to:

• With out Chase Brown (1,643 speeding yards, 75.7% of all Illinois speeding yards), can the Illini transfer the ball successfully on the bottom?
• How will the Bulldogs shuffle their receiving corps with out Rara Thomas, the group chief in catches, yards, and yards per reception?
• Can Illinois (Tenth in passing-downs charge pressured) pressure the Bulldogs’ offense (84th in success charge on passing downs) to transform lengthy downs and keep on the sector?

FEI Outright Decide: Mississippi State by 1.1.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas
USC Trojans (-2) vs. Tulane Inexperienced Wave
Monday, January 2, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

It took a mixture of things for Tulane to achieve their first New Yr’s Six bowl since 1940: Michael Pratt led them to a 14.7% explosive-play charge via the air, the offensive line produced on a heavy workload, and the protection made a stand on passing downs. However the obvious motive for the Inexperienced Wave’s unbelievable turnaround from 2-10 to 11-2 was the best way they shut down massive performs on protection. Tulane’s opponents averaged a 40.5% success charge, a stable however unexceptional mark, however they had been held to a 7.6% big-play charge that ranked second within the nation.

A variety of defenders performed a component in that efficiency, however essentially the most outstanding had been linebackers Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams. On the bottom, Anderson and Williams mixed for 223 tackles and missed simply 15, a stellar 6.3% missed sort out charge. In protection, they dealt with 55 whole targets and allowed 4.9 yards after catch per reception with as many interceptions as touchdowns (two of every). Thanks partly to their efforts, the Inexperienced Wave held opponents to simply 14 performs of 30 or extra yards, tied for fifth in FBS.

USC, second in offensive explosiveness this season, needs to be an ideal matchup for Tulane’s protection. Whereas the Trojans had been capable of keep away from opt-outs from some key items, a lingering damage will preclude famous person receiver Jordan Addison from enjoying, and one other might restrict the effectiveness of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams. With an excellent speeding corps (third in success charge, first in explosiveness) coming into this sport at near-full power, USC would possibly run the ball greater than they often have this season, testing a comparatively weak Tulane run protection. Travis Dye (884 yards, 6.1 yards per carry) is unavailable, however Austin Jones (644 yards, 5.7 yards per carry) is arguably simply nearly as good, particularly with a month of relaxation for the reason that Pac-12 Championship Sport. For the Trojans to keep away from an upset and full a comeback season of their very own, they’re going to want him to step up.

Look ahead to:

• How will USC’s offensive line carry out with out injured heart Brett Neilon and guard Andrew Vorhees?
• Can Tulane (9.0% front-seven havoc charge allowed, forty first) maintain off a USC move rush led by the dynamic Tuli Tuipulotu (21 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks)?
• Will the Trojans’ struggling run protection, 128th in success charge and 116th in explosiveness allowed, have the ability to maintain off Tyjae Spears (1,376 yards, 6.5 yards per carry)?

FEI Outright Decide: USC by 4.1.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Florida
Purdue Boilermakers vs. LSU Tigers (-14.5)
Monday, January 2, 1 p.m. (ABC)

Few items in faculty soccer have made a extra full turnaround this season than LSU’s run sport. Final yr, the Tigers averaged simply 114 yards per sport on the bottom, rating one hundred and fifteenth in success charge and 94th in explosiveness on speeding performs. 5 groups held them underneath 100 yards and a couple of.5 yards per carry, together with 4-8 ULM. One yr later, LSU is averaging 181 speeding yards per sport, with their speeding corps rating fourth in success charge and twentieth in explosiveness. Solely two groups, Tennessee and Georgia, have held them underneath 100 yards, and 5 totally different gamers have at the least 250 speeding yards and 5 speeding touchdowns for the Tigers. With quarterback Jayden Daniels (818 speeding yards, 11 touchdowns) and working again Josh Williams (532 speeding yards, 5.5 yards per carry) main the group, LSU has gone from one of many nation’s worst groups on the bottom to certainly one of its greatest.

Making an attempt to restrict that lineup of star rushers is an unenviable process for any protection, notably for Purdue. The Boilermakers have been stable in opposition to the run this season, particularly in limiting massive performs—simply 7.9% of opponents’ carries have gone for double-digit yardage, second within the nation. However whether or not due to growing schedule problem or put on and tear on the protection, they struggled increasingly because the season went on. Purdue held 4 of their first six opponents underneath 100 speeding yards, however all of their final seven foes reached that mark, with 5 of them going for over 150 yards on the bottom.

The Boilermakers closed out the season by giving up 225 yards on 5.9 yards per carry to Michigan, however the lengthy break between that sport and this one would possibly present a much-needed psychological and bodily reset. Purdue’s defensive position is able to making stops; Kydran Jenkins and Jack Sullivan are among the many nation’s best run-stopping tandem up entrance, with only one missed sort out on 54 makes an attempt. The linebackers have not been as a lot of an element as they could possibly be, nonetheless, and the Boilermakers will search for gamers corresponding to Jalen Graham and OC Brothers (mixed 17.6% missed sort out charge on speeding performs) to contribute extra and decelerate LSU’s deep speeding assault.

Look ahead to:

• How will Purdue deal with its passing sport with quarterback Aidan O’Connell and prime targets Charlies Jones and Payne Durham all opting out?
• With Kayshon Boutte unexpectedly declaring for the draft after initially planning to play, how will the Tigers’ receiving room alter to deal with its losses?
• How a lot stress can BJ Ojulari (5.5 sacks) and Saivion Jones (3.5 sacks) carry for LSU, whose different three defenders with a number of sacks are unavailable?

FEI Outright Decide: LSU by 11.0.

Rose Bowl Sport
Pasadena, California
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Utah Utes (-2.5)
Monday, January 2, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

In soccer, we are sometimes responsible of ascribing the majority of a group’s success to its quarterback. Even when there’s a component of fact to that assumption, it could obscure the opposite components in a group’s success—just like the elite run video games complementing Heisman finalists at USC and TCU this season. However typically, there isn’t any doubt that the quarterback is on the coronary heart of all the things in an excellent season.

That is the case for Utah’s Cam Rising, who drifted out and in of the beginning position all through his early profession earlier than solidifying himself as the highest choice final season. He earned all-conference honors whereas main the Utes to their first-ever Rose Bowl in 2021, and he was a gentle hand on the helm as they gained the Pac-12 and secured a return journey this yr. It should not be ignored that the group relied on different stars to make it this far—corresponding to working again Tavion Thomas and nook Clark Phillips III, neither of whom will play on this sport—however Rising is undoubtedly the chief within the locker room. If there was one play that outlined Utah’s season, it wasn’t a game-winning two-point conversion or an enormous return; it was the violent hit Rising took within the Pac-12 title sport that despatched his helmet flying, just for him to leap proper again up with a smile.

Penn State has accomplished about nearly as good a job as any group at limiting opponents’ passing assault this season. C.J. Stroud racked up 354 yards on 33 passes in opposition to the Nittany Lions, however the remainder of the groups they confronted averaged simply 5.5 yards per try. A deep secondary, led by corners Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Joey Porter Jr. (6.3 yards per goal, 36 move breakups), shut down virtually each opposing quarterback. Whereas Porter has opted out, a lot of the stars in Penn State’s defensive backfield are prone to play, presenting a tricky problem in what could possibly be Rising’s ultimate sport—and the cornerstone of his legacy—at Utah.

Look ahead to:

• Can Penn State’s stable run protection (forty fifth in success charge, forty first in explosiveness) suppress the Utes’ deep speeding corps (4 gamers with over 350 yards, excluding Thomas)?
• Will Sean Clifford (7.7 yards per try, 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions) have the ability to preserve tempo with Rising in opposition to Utah’s sturdy intermediate move protection?
• Can Nittany Lions rushers Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen (1,771 mixed yards, 19 touchdowns) get previous the Utes’ line and wreak havoc within the open subject?

FEI Outright Decide: Utah by 0.3.

FEI Picks: Bowl Spectacular Half III

FEI’s picks ATS final week: 3-11-1.

FEI’s picks ATS in 2022: 49-61-2.

Preston’s picks ATS final week: 11-3-1.

Preston’s picks ATS in 2022: 56-55-1.